Search:

An oriental viewpoint
Whats up with oil prices these days?
About unboxed


Member Since:
April 07, 2008
Last Signed In:
November 21, 2008
Profile Views:
169
Blog Views:
163
View Profile
Send a Message
Send To A Friend
Sign Guestbook
Add as a Friend

Previous Posts
Curiosity killed the cat?
Congrats!
Trying to make some sense: Mark-to-market
I speculate its not the speculators - Part 2
I speculate its not the speculators
Are our politicians really curmudgeons?
Scooters!
Expatriate registration
Whats up with oil prices these days?
Archives
April 08
May 08
June 08
July 08
August 08
September 08
October 08
November 08
Subscribe!
RSS 2.0 feed RSS 2.0
Add to My Yahoo
Add to My Google
Add to Bloglines
Add to My AOL
unboxed - > An oriental viewpoint -> I speculate its not the speculators
I speculate its not the speculators
First, some credentials: I am a licensed and registered commodities broker (Series 3 & series 30), and deal with speculative markets on a daily basis at the investment brokerage I work for.

Speculation does affect prices. Speculators create new highs, and new lows. However, speculation by itself is not able to maintain recent highs (lows) without there being a fundamental reason - supply/demand - backing such prices.

While speculation may have caused oil prices to reach its new highs, without a fundamental backing these highs can only be maintained by speculators for hours, a day or two tops. The simple fact that global supply of oil is 85 million barrels/day while demand is 87 million barrels/day is the fundamental fact for oil prices to maintain their highs.

Congress is after the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trade Commission) to do something about these speculators. This has happened in the past, and in the past Congress got its way. Case in point: in 1958 Congress banned futures trading (speculation) on onions - this law still stands today. Onion farmers blamed "moneyed interests" - speculators - for major price movements, and lobbied Congress to ban trading on onions. As a result, onion prices are extremely volatile, swinging up and down 400% over 6 months in 2006.

A 1963 study by a Stanford economist, analyzing prices before and after the ban, showed that the speculators actually helped stabilize onion prices.

Moreover, it is important to note that contracts of buyers expecting the prices to go up must equal the value of contracts for sellers expecting the price to go down. Speculation is a means producers of goods can help protect themselves against future price changes. Speculative investments are not responsible, neither partly nor in whole, for our $4/gallon gas.
Topics:
posted by unboxed on Wednesday, July 9, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Report a Violation
Viewed 26 times
2 comments from 2 users

1

posted by Ike on Jul 11, 2008 at 06:01 PM

You know, I've been reading your blogs and one thought comes to mind.  Not that I know for sure but I'm willing to bet you don't have a girlfriend?  Am I right? :)

This is one of the sharper ideas you've pitched and it makes complete sense.  The prices of oil are high, and have been there for a while now.  Speculators can't HOLD a price anywhere because that is against the Speculator's Creed.  When prices are high, you sell, allowing prices to drop when it's a good time to buy.  Speculators like to force the price down just like they like to force them up.  If I was a speculator, I would love to see the price of oil cut in half because I know that it a good time to buy.

posted by unboxed on Jul 13, 2008 at 09:21 PM
Hardy har har. We have a comedian on our hands.

I was just reading a book by one of my favorite economists, Thomas Sowell - and I realize that stating I have favorite economists isn't refuting your statement, Ike.. lol - he touched on something that goes well with this subject. Here he is talking about "the role of prices" in general, and isn't directing his remarks towards oil prices:

For example, not only are high prices often blamed on "greed," people often speak of something being sold for more than its "real" value, or of workers being paid less than they are "really" worth - or of corporate executives, athletes, and entertainers being paid more than they are "really" worth.
To treat prices as resulting from greed implies that sellers can set prices where they wish, that prices are not determined by supply and demand.

Speculators influence prices, but speculators cannot override the underlying affects of supply and demand.
1

Leave a Comment
Ground Rules for posting comments:
  • No profanity or personal attacks.
  • Please comment on the subject of the post itself.
If you do not follow these rules we will remove your comment. Please keep it civil.

To protect users from spam, we need you to prove that you're a human being.
Please enter the text from the image at left.