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Curiosity killed the cat? Congrats! Trying to make some sense: Mark-to-market I speculate its not the speculators - Part 2 I speculate its not the speculators Are our politicians really curmudgeons? Scooters! Expatriate registration Whats up with oil prices these days? April 08 May 08 June 08 July 08 August 08 September 08 October 08 November 08
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I speculate its not the speculators
First, some credentials: I am a licensed and registered commodities broker (Series 3 & series 30), and deal with speculative markets on a daily basis at the investment brokerage I work for.
Speculation does affect prices. Speculators create new highs, and new lows. However, speculation by itself is not able to maintain recent highs (lows) without there being a fundamental reason - supply/demand - backing such prices. While speculation may have caused oil prices to reach its new highs, without a fundamental backing these highs can only be maintained by speculators for hours, a day or two tops. The simple fact that global supply of oil is 85 million barrels/day while demand is 87 million barrels/day is the fundamental fact for oil prices to maintain their highs. Congress is after the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trade Commission) to do something about these speculators. This has happened in the past, and in the past Congress got its way. Case in point: in 1958 Congress banned futures trading (speculation) on onions - this law still stands today. Onion farmers blamed "moneyed interests" - speculators - for major price movements, and lobbied Congress to ban trading on onions. As a result, onion prices are extremely volatile, swinging up and down 400% over 6 months in 2006. A 1963 study by a Stanford economist, analyzing prices before and after the ban, showed that the speculators actually helped stabilize onion prices. Moreover, it is important to note that contracts of buyers expecting the prices to go up must equal the value of contracts for sellers expecting the price to go down. Speculation is a means producers of goods can help protect themselves against future price changes. Speculative investments are not responsible, neither partly nor in whole, for our $4/gallon gas. 2 comments from 2 users
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posted by
Ike
on Jul 11, 2008 at 06:01 PM
You know, I've been reading your blogs and one thought comes to mind. Not that I know for sure but I'm willing to bet you don't have a girlfriend? Am I right? :) This is one of the sharper ideas you've pitched and it makes complete sense. The prices of oil are high, and have been there for a while now. Speculators can't HOLD a price anywhere because that is against the Speculator's Creed. When prices are high, you sell, allowing prices to drop when it's a good time to buy. Speculators like to force the price down just like they like to force them up. If I was a speculator, I would love to see the price of oil cut in half because I know that it a good time to buy. posted by
unboxed
on Jul 13, 2008 at 09:21 PM
I was just reading a book by one of my favorite economists, Thomas Sowell - and I realize that stating I have favorite economists isn't refuting your statement, Ike.. lol - he touched on something that goes well with this subject. Here he is talking about "the role of prices" in general, and isn't directing his remarks towards oil prices: For example, not only are high prices often blamed on "greed," people often speak of something being sold for more than its "real" value, or of workers being paid less than they are "really" worth - or of corporate executives, athletes, and entertainers being paid more than they are "really" worth. Speculators influence prices, but speculators cannot override the underlying affects of supply and demand.
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